NASCAR at Dover odds, key stats, bets to consider: Three drivers to fade in Monday’s matchups

There’s not any track in NASCAR very like Dover International Speedway. The 1-mile concrete track in Delaware includes high banks and multiple grooves, similar to Bristol’s half-mile layout but with high-banked straightaways.
For handicapping functions, Dover is a unique monitor, but outcomes from Bristol should be taken under account, as well as tracks that have utilized the 750-horsepower, no-aero duct bundle this year (more on this below).
It doesn’t appear to matter where NASCAR races this season, Kyle Busch has been one of those top-3 favorites, also he’s the No. 1 power-rated driver for oddsmakers. Busch isn’t just directing the Cup Series in victories (three) this season, but his 10 straight top-10 finishes to begin the season has only been accomplished by four other drivers, rather than because Morgan Shepherd in 1990.
Busch is a whopping 3/1 to win Sunday’s Gander RV 400 (1 p.m. CT, FS1) and tough to fade believing he has 17 top-10s, such as 12 top-5s, in his final 28 series begins at Dover.
Update: The Gander RV 400 was postponed until Monday at 11 a.m. CT on FS1
Chase Elliott, a week’s winner in Talladega, and slumping contender Kyle Larson were the only two drivers to have their futures chances to win the Cup Series championship adjusted this week. Both motorists are worth fading in the matchups (listed below), however.
Elliott is the tougher sell believing he is the most recent winner at the Monster Mile and has five top-5 finishes in six string races in Dover, but Chevrolet has been very disappointing this season out the superspeedways and we all like to fade drivers away wins.
Larson, who hasn’t won a race in the Cup level since the 2017 fall race in Richmond, moved from 20/1 into 25/1 to win November’s title. Larson opened the season 7/1, but enters this weekend’s race in Dover sitting beyond the playoff standings in 21st. Talladega’s wreck marked the third time in six races Larson has wrecked from a race. Other results during that span include a 12th-place showing at Fontana, 18th-place in Martinsville and 19th at Bristol.
Dover rules bundle, recent results
For the fifth time this year, Cup drivers will race with an engine-producing 750-horsepower without a aero ducts. The four previous races have been Phoenix, Martinsville, Bristol, and Richmond, together with Joe Gibbs Racing winning three and Brad Keselowski top 446 of all 500 laps at Martinsville.
Recent Dover winners
2019 autumn: Chase Elliott
2018 spring: Kevin Harvick
2017 autumn: Kyle Busch
2017 spring: Jimmie Johnson
2016 autumn: Martin Truex, Jr..
Odds to win Gander RV 400 at Dover
Opening possibilities Supplied by Westgate SuperBook
Kyle BUSCH 3/1
Kevin HARVICK 4/1
Brad KESELOWSKI 8/1
Martin TRUEX JR 8/1
Joey LOGANO 8/1
Clint BOWYER 12/1
Kurt BUSCH 14/1
Chase ELLIOTT 12/1
Denny HAMLIN 14/1
Aric ALMIROLA 18/1
Ryan BLANEY 20/1
Kyle LARSON 20/1
Erik JONES 25/1
Jimmie JOHNSON 20/1
Daniel SUAREZ 50/1
Austin DILLON 80/1
Ricky STENHOUSE JR 100/1
Ryan NEWMAN 100/1
Alex BOWMAN 100/1
Paul MENARD 100/1
William BYRON 200/1
Matt DIBENEDETTO 200/1
Chris BUESCHER 300/1
Darrell WALLACE JR 300/1
Daniel HEMRIC 300/1
Ryan PREECE 500/1
Ty DILLON 1000/1
Michael McDOWELL 2000/1
David RAGAN 2000/1
FIELD (all others) 1000/1
Notable NASCAR betting matchups in Dover
Opening possibilities provided by Westgate SuperBook
Kyle BUSCH -125
Kevin HARVICK +105
Denny HAMLIN -110
Kurt BUSCH -110
Kevin HARVICK -140
Brad KESELOWSKI +120
Kurt BUSCH -110
Chase ELLIOTT -110
Brad KESELOWSKI -110
Joey LOGANO -110
Brad KESELOWSKI -110
Martin TRUEX JR -110
Joey LOGANO -110
Martin TRUEX JR -110
Clint BOWYER -110
Kurt BUSCH -110
NASCAR at Dover stakes Opening possibilities Supplied by Westgate SuperBook
Hamlin (-110) over Elliott
We mentioned fading Elliott over and also our pick to beat him is Hamlin, who is enjoying a resurgent season. Hamlin has finished fifth in all four races with Sunday’s package and contains five top-10 endings in the last six Dover races, such as a runner-up past fall.
Truex Jr. (-110) over Keselowski
Truex includes five top-10s and four top-5s at the previous six Dover races, leading 387 laps in that moment. Truex also finished second at Phoenix with this bundle and won at Richmond after leading a race-high 186 laps. While Keselowski dominated Martinsville, he has been 19th in Phoenix, 18th in Bristol, and seventh at Richmond.
Daniel Suarez (-110) over Jimmie Johnson
How the mighty have fallen. Seven-time champion Johnson contributes to the site of his most recent success, where he’s the sport’s all-time winningest driver with 11 victories. However, Johnson is 16th in the series standings and has struggled the last two seasons. Suarez calls Dover his favourite track, and he’s averaging a 6.7 finish over four starts. The Mexico native owns the fourth-best typical running position among active drivers at Dover and contains the third-most laps in the top 15.
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